:: Barrie Real Estate: 2009 = Buying opportunities ::

2009 holds opportunity for buyers

If there has been a time over my nine years working as a Realtor where the home buying public has had a financial advantage I can say with absolute certainty it is now and over the course of the next few months.

A snap shot of the Barrie area real estate market and the economy in this first week of 2009 shows us a higher number of greatly reduced property prices than at any time in the past ten years. Many of the homes I see for sale have been listed for months and as shown in the examples below continue to lower their prices every few weeks in the hopes of finding a willing purchaser.
Many are selling out of necessity over choice which for the buyer means their is additional room to negotiate prices down even further than the reduced list prices shown.

The efforts of our government to stimulate the economy has given us greatly reduced lending rates which right now are sitting lower than the average of the past ten years. This translates into lower monthly mortgage payments and a greater portion of your monthly payment going toward the principle that pays down the house.
2008 saw record numbers of resale homes listed for sale in Barrie, lower list vs... sale price ratios and longer list to sell times. Many homes that were pulled from the market in the weeks before Christmas will re-emerge on the market over the next few months in what is traditionally the high volume time of year. In short we are likely to see even greater numbers of homes for sale in the Barrie area between now and the end of spring which will keep the balance of negotiating power in the hands of the buyers.

It is entertaining somehow to watch the hordes who will line up in sub zero temperatures to save $50 to $100 off of a TV or computer component at the Boxing day sales each year or will burn $2 worth of fuel while lined up to save 2 cents per litre on a tank of gas.Right now the real estate climate is such that those people could effectively save themselves many tens of thousands of dollars on a home right now. Translated into bargain hunter lingo; enough coin to buy a new flat screen TV and a few full tanks of gas every year for the next twenty five years if they take advantage of the home buying opportunities available this year.

List price January 2008
$339900
Current list price
$299000

List price June 2008
$349000
Current list price
$299000

List price April 2008

$389900
Current list price
$312000

 

List price April 2008
$324900
Current list price
$259900

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Barrie 2009 Market forecast
Best time to step up during a market correction

:: 2008 Barrie and National Real Estate forecast: Existing home sales up - New home sales down ::

Housing starts in Barrie and across Canada are expected to dip in 2008 (information from Ontario Real Estate Association)

November 12, 2007 — New home construction will drop in 2008 in part due to higher housing prices and mortgage carrying costs. That’s the word from Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation’s (CMHC) fourth quarter Housing Market Outlook, Canada Edition report.

Housing starts will reach 227,530 units in 2007, an increase of 0.1 per cent from the 227,395 units in 2006, according to the report. However, in 2008, residential construction will decline to about 214,000 units. Despite this drop, 2008 will mark the seventh consecutive year in which housing starts exceed 200,000 units.

“Continuing high employment levels, income gains and low mortgage rates have been a boon to Canada’s housing markets. Despite this, however, housing starts are expected to decrease in 2008,” said Bob Dugan, Chief Economist at CMHC. “The pull back in housing starts next year will be mainly due to the increases in house prices in recent years, which have pushed mortgage carrying costs higher.”

Existing home sales, as measured by the Multiple Listing Service (MLS^®), are poised to experience their best year on record with just over 521,000 units in 2007, a 7.8 per cent increase over 2006. The high level of MLS^® sales will be led by activity in the Prairies. With respect to 2008, the level of MLS^® sales will fall by 3.9 per cent, but will still be slightly over 500,000 units, the second highest on record. Growth in the average MLS^® price will remain high at 10.1 percent in 2007, mainly because of continued strong price pressures in Canada’s western provinces. As most resale markets move toward more balanced conditions, growth in average MLS^® price is forecast to slow to 4.2 percent in 2008.

The Ontario economy is expected to improve slightly heading into 2008. Accordingly, this will help sustain a high level of housing demand across the province. New home construction activity will be moderate between now and the end of 2008. Housing starts are expected to decline from 73,417 units in 2006 to 67,700 units in 2007. For 2008, a slight up-tick to 68,175 units is expected. The average MLS^® price in Ontario will rise by 6.2 per cent in 2007, while 2008 should see a more modest increase of 3.3 percent.

As Canada’s national housing agency, Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC) draws on over 60 years of experience to help Canadians access a variety of quality, environmentally sustainable, and affordable homes — homes that will continue to create vibrant and healthy communities and cities across the country.

Provincial Housing Outlook: Total Housing Starts

	2006 Actual	2007 Forecasts	2008 Forecasts
Newfoundland and Labrador	2,234	2,325	2,250
Prince Edward Island	738	680	630
Nova Scotia	4,896	4,700	4,525
New Brunswick	4,085	4,025	3,725
Quebec	47,877	52,400	48,420
Ontario	73,417	67,700	68,175
Manitoba	5,028	5,750	5,600
Saskatchewan	3,715	6,000	5,500
Alberta	48,962	47,750	42,250
British Columbia	36,443	36,200	33,250